https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org

Global Priorities InstituteThe Global Priorities Institute (GPI) at the University of Oxford conducted research on how to do the most good. This page preserves key resources and points to successor initiatives.Global Priorities Institute (2018–2025)History of GPIFounded in 2018, the Global Priorities Institute (GPI) was an interdisciplinary research institute at the University of Oxford, focusing on philosophy, economics, and psychology. Its mission was to address deeply unresolved questions crucial for people seeking to do the most good, where good is understood in impartial terms. Beyond conducting its own research, GPI aimed to promote the broader uptake of these questions among academics. At the time, many of these issues were relatively neglected within academia.Over its seven-year existence, GPI researchers published a wide range of papers in peer-reviewed journals. It also made many more papers made available via a working paper series, which included contributions from both GPI researchers and external scholars. These papers spanned a wide range of topics, including the ethics of the long-term future, mind and value, the risks and opportunities of artificial intelligence, transformative artificial intelligence and economic growth, existential risk, animal welfare, philanthropic decision-making, and effective giving.In addition to producing research, GPI fostered a vibrant academic community around global priorities research, a research field that aims to identify, understand, and address the world’s most pressing problems. It hosted 20 academic workshops, as well as the Derek Parfit Memorial Lectures in philosophy and the Tony Atkinson Memorial Lectures in economics. It also organised a successful summer fellowship program that introduced many early-career researchers to global priorities research and ran a thriving predoctoral program in economics, placing our alumni at (in geographic order) Berkeley, Stanford, Northwestern, Chicago (x2), Georgetown, Columbia, MIT, MIT Sloan, Oxford, LSE (x2), TSE, and Zurich.GPI closed at the end of  July 2025, but many threads of the institute's research will continue to be explored by a community of interested researchers. GPI's research agendas in philosophy, economics, and psychology highlight many areas that still have substantial room for further research. You can access these research agendas and publications below, and a list of resources is provided at the end of this webpage. If you would like to receive email updates about any future research endeavours that continue the mission of the Global Priorities Institute, you can also sign up here. Research AgendasPhilosophy Research AgendaEconomics Research AgendaPsychology Research AgendaSeveral additional topics in economics are covered in an older version of the research agenda. Readers interested in a broader set of topics can view them here.PublicationsThe following is a list of research publications by staff at GPI (marked with a *), research affiliates (marked with #), and others who published in our working paper series. You can also find summaries of selected papers here.BooksEffective altruism: Philosophical IssuesGreaves* & Pummer, Oxford University Press 2019Moral UncertaintyMacAskill*, Bykvist, & Ord, Oxford University Press, 2020 What We Owe the FutureMacAskill*, Basic Books, 2022Effective Altruism And The Human MindSchubert & Caviola*, Oxford University Press, 2024.Essays on LongtermismThorstad*, Barrett*, & Greaves*, Oxford University Press, 2025.Philosophy PublicationsEthics and Future Generations: Longtermism, Existential Risk, and Population AxiologyPopulation Ethical IntuitionsCaviola*, Althaus, Mogensen*, & Goodwin, Cognition 2022.Longtermism and AggregationCurran, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 2025.Concepts of Existential CatastropheGreaves*, The Monist, 2024.Optimum Population SizeGreaves*, The Oxford Handbook of Population Ethics (Arrhenius et al. eds.), 2022.Comparing Existence and Non-ExistenceGreaves* and Cusbert, Ethics and Existence: The Legacy of Derek Parfit (McMahan et al. eds.), 2022.The Case for Strong Longtermism -  SummaryGreaves* and MacAskill*, Essays on Longtermism (Greaves et al., eds), 2025.Strong Longtermism and the Challenge From Anti-Aggregative Moral ViewsHeikkinen, GPI Working Paper, 2022.Time Discounting, Consistency and Special Obligations: a Defence of Robust TemporalismLloyd, GPI Working Paper, 2021.Are we Living at the Hinge of History? - SummaryMacAskill*, Ethics and Existence: The Legacy of Derek Parfit (McMahan et al. eds.), 2022.The Significance, Persistence, Contingency FrameworkMacAskill*, Thomas* & Vallinder, GPI Technical Report, 2022.The Hinge of History Hypothesis: Reply to MacAskillMogensen*, Analysis, 2024.The Weight Of Suffering - SummaryMogensen*, The Journal of Philosophy, 2024.Respect For Others’ Risk Attitudes And The Long-Run FutureMogensen*, Nous, 2024.Philosophical Considerations Relevant to Valuing Continued Human Survival: Conceptual Analysis, Population Axiology, and Decision TheoryMogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2023.The Only Ethical Argument For Positive ઠ? Partiality And Pure Time PreferenceMogensen*, Philosophical Studies, 2022.Do Not Go Gentle: Why The Asymmetry Does Not Support Anti-Natalism - SummaryMogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2021.Moral Demands and the Far Future - SummaryMogensen*, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 2021.Staking Our Future: Deontic Longtermism and the Non-Identity Problem - SummaryMogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2019.The Paralysis Argument - SummaryMogensen* and MacAskill*, Philosophers’ Imprint, 2021.How Cost-Effective are Efforts to Detect Near-Earth-ObjectsNewberry, GPI Technical Report, 2021.How Many Lives Does the Future Hold?Newberry, GPI Technical Report, 2021.Should Longtermists Recommend Hastening Extinction Rather Than Delaying It?Pettigrew, The Monist, 2024.Future Suffering and The Non-Identity ProblemPummer, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Human Extinction From A Thomist Christian PerspectiveRiedener, Effective Altruism and Religion (Riedener et al., eds.), 2022.How Much Should Governments Pay To Prevent Catastrophes? Longtermism’s Limited RoleShulman and Thornley*, Essays on Longtermism (Greaves et al., eds), 2025.The Epistemic Challenge To Longtermism - SummaryTarsney*, Synthese, 2023.Non-Additive Axiologies In Large WorldsTarsney* and Thomas*, Ergo, 2024.Longtermism In An Infinite WorldTarsney* and Wilkinson*, Essays on Longtermism (Greaves et al., eds), 2025.Dispelling The Anthropic ShadowThomas*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.The Asymmetry, Uncertainty, And The Long TermThomas*, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 2023.Doomsday And Objective ChanceThomas*, GPI Working Paper, 2021.A Non-Identity Dilemma For Person-Affecting ViewsThornley*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.A Fission Problem For Person-Affecting ViewsThornley*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Critical-Set Views, Biographical Identity, And The Long TermThornley*, Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 2025.The Scope Of Longtermism - SummaryThorstad*, Australasian Journal of Philosophy, forthcoming.Mistakes In The Moral Mathematics Of Existential RiskThorstad*, Ethics, 2024.High Risk, Low Reward: A Challenge To The Astronomical Value Of Existential Risk Mitigation - SummaryThorstad*, Philosophy and Public Affairs, 2023.Aggregation In An Infinite, Relativistic UniverseWilkinson*, Erkenntnis, 2024. Infinite Aggregation And RiskWilkinson*, Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 2023.Can The Long Term Matter If Extinction Does Not?Wilkinson*, GPI Working Paper, 2023.Decision Theory and Ethics: Fanaticism, Cluelessness, Moral Uncertainty, and MoreIn Defence Of ModerationBarrett*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Moral Uncertainty And Public JustificationBarrett* & Schmidt, Philosophers’ Imprint, 2024.A Paradox For Tiny Probabilities And Enormous Values - SummaryBeckstead & Thomas*, Nous, 2024.How Should Risk And Ambiguity Affect Our Charitable Giving?Buchak, Utilitas, 2023.A Bargaining-Theoretic Approach To Moral UncertaintyGreaves* & Cotton-Barratt, Journal of Moral Philosophy, 2023.On The Desire To Make A DifferenceGreaves*, Thomas*, Mogensen*, & MacAskill*, Philosophical Studies, 2024.Consequentialism, Cluelessness, Clumsiness, And CounterfactualsHájek, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Tiny Probabilities And The Value Of The Far FutureKosonen, GPI Working Paper, 2023.When Should An Effective Altruist Donate? - SummaryMacAskill*, Giving in Time (Madoff and Soskis, eds.), 2023.Why Maximize Expected Choice-Worthiness?MacAskill* and Ord, Nous, 2020.The Evidentialist’s WagerMacAskill*, Vallinder, Oesterheld, Shulman, & Treutlein, The Journal of Philosophy, 2021.Maximal CluelessnessMogensen*, Philosophical Quarterly, 2021.Doomsday Rings Twice - SummaryMogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2019.Tough Enough? Robust Satisficing As A Decision Norm For Long-Term Policy AnalysisMogensen* & Thorstad*, Synthese, 2022.Calibration Dilemmas In The Ethics Of DistributionNebel & Stefánsson, Economics & Philosophy, 2022.On Two Arguments For FanaticismRussell, Nous, 2024.Time Bias And AltruismSung, Mind, 2024.Against Anti-FanaticismTarsney*, Philosophy and Phenomenlogical Research, 2024.Expected Value, To A Point: Moral Decision-Making Under Background UncertaintyTarsney*, Noûs, 2025.Moral Decision-Making Under UncertaintyTarsney*, Thomas* & Macaskill*, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2024.Heuristics For Clueless Agents: How To Get Away With Ignoring What Matters Most In Ordinary Decision-Making Thorstad* & Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2020.The Unexpected Value Of The FutureWilkinson*, Ergo, forthcoming.Flummoxing ExpectationsWilkinson*, Noûs, 2024.Egyptology And FanaticismWilkinson*, Philosophical Studies, 2024.Can Risk Aversion Survive The Long Run? Wilkinson*, The Philosophical Quarterly, 2023.Can An Evidentialist Be Risk-Averse In The Moral Good? Wilkinson*, GPI Working Paper, 2022.In Defence Of Fanaticism - SummaryWilkinson*, Ethics, 2022.Political PhilosophySocial Experimentation In An Unjust WorldBarrett* & Buchanan, Oxford Studies in Political Philosophy, 2023.Social BeneficenceBarrett*, GPI Working Paper, 2022.Longtermist Institutional Reform - SummaryJohn & MacAskill*, GPI Working Paper, 2020.Meaning, Medicine, And MeritMogensen*, Utlitas, 2019.The Freedom Of Future PeopleSchmidt, Philosophy & Public Affairs, 2025.Economic Inequality And The Long-Term FutureSchmidt & Juijn, Politics, Philosophy & Economics, 2023.Risks From Artificial IntelligenceA Polycrisis Threat Model For AIBales*, AI & Society, 2025.AI Takeover And Human DisempowermentBales*, The Philosophical Quarterly, 2024.Artificial Intelligence: Arguments For Catastrophic RiskBales*, D'Alessandro & Kirk-Giannini, Philosophy Compass, 2024.Will AI Avoid Exploitation? - SummaryBales*, Philosophical Studies, 2023.Societal adaptation to advanced AI,Bernardi, Mukobi, Greaves*, Heim & Anderljung 2024Evolutionary Debunking And Value AlignmentDale & Saad*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Input To UN Interim Report On Governing AI For HumanitySaad* et al., 2024.Towards Shutdownable Agents Via Stochastic ChoiceThornley*, Roman, Ziakas, Ho & Thomson, Technical A.I. Safety Conference, 2025The Shutdown Problem: An AI Engineering Puzzle For Decision TheoristsThornley*, Philosophical Studies, 2024.The Shutdown Problem: Incomplete Preferences as a SolutionThornley*, Working Paper, 2024.Shutdownable Agents through POST-AgencyThornley*, Working Paper, 2025.Against the Singularity Hypothesis - SummaryThorstad*, Philosophical Studies, 2024.What Power-Seeking Theorems Do Not ShowThorstad*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Digital MindsAgainst Willing AI ServitudeBales*, The Philosophical Quarterly, 2025.AI Alignment Vs AI Ethical Treatment: Ten ChallengesBradley & Saad*, Analytic Philosophy, forthcomingVarieties Of Moral Agency And Risks Of Digital DystopiaBradley & Saad*, American Philosophical Quarterly, forthcoming.Principles For Responsible AI Consciousness ResearchButlin* & Lappas, Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research,  2025.Taking AI Welfare SeriouslyLong, Sebo, Butlin*, Finlinson, Fish, Harding, Pfau, Sims, Birch & Chalmers, Working Paper, 2024.How To Resist The Fading Qualia Argument Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.In Search Of A Biological Crux For AI ConsciousnessSaad*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Digital Minds Takeoff ScenariosSaad* & Caviola*.Simulation Expectation - SummaryThomas*, Erkenntnis, 2024.Mind and ValueConsciousness Makes Things MatterLee, Philosophers’ Imprint, forthcoming.Chains Of Care And The Expanding Circle Of Prudential ConcernLi & Saad*Once More, Without FeelingMogensen*, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, forthcomingWelfare And Felt DurationMogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Desire-Fulfilment And ConsciousnessMogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.A Dualist Theory Of ExperienceSaad*, Philosophical Studies, 2025.Economics PublicationsNormative EconomicsThe structure of critical setsBossert, Cato & Kamaga, GPI Working Paper, 2025.Population ethics with thresholdsBossert, Cato & Kamaga, GPI Working Paper, 2025.The Cross‐Sectional Implications of the Social Discount RateEden#, Econometrica, 2023.XUFryxell*, Working Paper, 2024.Infinite IgnoranceFryxell*, Working Paper, 2024.Utilitarianism is Implied by Individual and Social DominanceGustafsson, Spears#, Zuber, Working Paper, 2023.Nondogmatic Social DiscountingMillner#, American Economic Review, 2020.Choosing the Future: Markets, Ethics, and Rapprochement in Social DiscountingMillner# & Heal, Journal of Economic Literature, 2023.A characterization of Cesàro average utilityPivato#, Journal of Economic Theory, 2022.Cesàro Average Utilitarianism in Relativistic SpacetimePivato#, Social Choice & Welfare, 2023.Intergenerational Equity and Infinite-Population Ethics: A SurveyPivato# and Fleurbaey, Journal of Mathematical Economics, forthcoming.What Should We Agree on about the Repugnant Conclusion?Tarsney*, Spears#, Pivato#, MacAskill*, Kuruc#, Greaves*,  et al., Utilitas, 2021.Population and WelfarePopulation and Welfare:Measuring Growth when Life is Worth LivingAdhami, Bils, Klenow, and Jones#, Working Papers, 2025. Intergenerational Transmission is Not Sufficient for Positive Long-Term Population GrowthArenberg, Kuruc#, Franz, Vyas, Lawson, LoPalo, Budolfson, Geruso, and Spears#, Demography, 2022.The Long-Run Relationship Between Per Capita Incomes and Population SizeEden# and Kuruc#, GPI Working Paper, 2024.The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining PopulationJones#, American Economic Review, 2022.The Speed of HistoryFryxell* and Kuruc#, Working Paper, 2024.Long-Term Population Projections: Scenarios of Low or Rebounding FertilitySpears#, Vyas, Weston, and Geruso, Plos One, 2024.Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking PopulationVyas, Budolfson, Kuruc#, Spears#, and Geruso, Working Paper, 2024. Animal WelfareAnimal-Based Foods have High Social and Climate CostsErrickson, Kuruc#, and McFadden, Nature Food, 2021.The Impact of New Products on Ethical BeliefsFreitas-Groff, Macdonald & Vivalt*Monetizing the Externalities of Animal Agriculture: Insights from an Inclusive Welfare FunctionKuruc# and McFadden, Social Choice and Welfare, 2023.Existential and Catastrophic Risk Is Extinction Risk Mitigation Uniquely Cost-Effective? Not in Standard Population ModelsAlexandrie* & Eden#, Essays on Longtermism, 2023.Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equityMéjean, Pottier, Fleurbaey, & Zuber, Climate Change, 2020.Intergenerational experimentation and catastrophic riskPitsuwan,  GPI Working Paper, 2022.Existential Risk and GrowthTrammell# & Aschenbrenner, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Risks and Opportunities from AIComputational ethics Jamison* et al., Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 2022.Measuring AI-Driven Risk with Stock PricesCampos-Martins*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Imperfect Recall and AI DelegationChen*, Ghersengorin*, and Petersen, GPI Working Paper, 2024.The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential RiskJones#, American Economic Review: Insights, 2024.Economic Growth under Transformative AITrammell# and Korinek, Annual Review of Economics, forthcoming.Philanthropic Decision-MakingFunding public projects: A case for the Nash product ruleBrandl#, Brandt, Greger, Peters, Stricker, & Suksompong, Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2022The Conservation MultiplierHarstad, Journal of Political Economy, 2023.Quadratic Funding with Incomplete InformationMota Freitas* and Maldonado, Social Choice and Welfare, 2024.Patient Philanthropy in an Impatient WorldTrammell#, Technical Report, 2022.Dynamic public good provision under time preference heterogeneityTrammell#, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Ethical ConsumerismTrammell#, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Evidence and Policy-MakingUnderstanding and Increasing Policymakers' Sensitivity to Program ImpactBell and Toma*, Journal of Public Economics, 2024. Estimating long-term treatment effects without long-term outcome dataBernard, Lee*, & Wang*, GPI Working Paper, 2023.Cassandra’s Curse: A second tragedy of the commonsColo, GPI Working Paper, 2022.Altruism in governance: Insight from randomized trainingMehmood, Naseer, & Chen, Journal of Development Economics, 2024.Prediction: The long and short of itMillner# & Heyen, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2021.Numbers tell, Words sellThaler, Toma*, & Wang*, GPI Working Paper, 2025.How Much Can We Generalize from Impact Evaluations?Vivalt*, Journal of the European Economics Association, 2020.How Do Policymakers Update Their Beliefs?Vivalt* & Coville, Journal of Development Economics, 2023.Local Knowledge, Formal Evidence, and Policy DecisionsVivalt*, Coville, & KC, Journal of Development Economics, 2025.Effective GivingCognitive Behavioral Therapy Reduces Crime and Violence over Ten Years: Experimental EvidenceBlattman, Chaskel, Jamison*, & Sheridan. American Economic Review: Insights, 2023.How effective is (more) money? Randomizing unconditional cash transfer amounts in the USJaroszewicz, Hauser, Jachimowicz, & Jamison*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.Psychology PublicationsGlobal Catastrophic Risk and Longtermism Crying Wolf: Warning About Societal Risks Can Be Reputationally Risky Caviola*, Coleman, Winter & Lewis, 2025.Population Ethical IntuitionsCaviola*, Althaus, Mogensen* & Goodwin, Cognition, 2022.Beliefs About The End Of Humanity: How Bad, Likely, And Important Is Human Extinction?Coleman, Caviola*, Lewis & Goodwin, 2025.It Only Takes One: The Psychology of Unilateral DecisionsLewis, Allen, Winter & Caviola*, 2025.Misjudgment Exacerbates Collective Action ProblemsLewis, Srna, Morrissey, Wilks, Winter & Caviola*, 2025.Communicating Tail-Risk CrediblyNeto, Lewis & Caviola*, 2025.The Psychology Of Existential Risk: Moral Judgments About Human ExtinctionSchubert, Caviola* & Faber, 2022, Scientific Reports, 2019.Temporal Distance Reduces Ingroup FavoritismSchubert, Caviola*, Savulescu & Faber, 2025.Artificial Intelligence and Digital MindsReluctance To Harm AIAllen & Caviola*, 2025.The Societal Response To Potentially Sentient AICaviola*, 2025.The Social Science Of Digital Minds: Research AgendaCaviola*, 2025.Forecasting Digital Minds Takeoff Scenarios: Expert SurveyCaviola* & Saad*, 2025.Subjective Experience In AI Systems: What Do AI Researchers And The Public Believe? Dreksler, Caviola*, Allen, Lewis, Mays, Sebo & Chalmers, 2025.Digital Sentience SkepticismLadak & Caviola*, 2025.Digital Minds Takeoff ScenariosSaad* & Caviola*, 2024.AI Can Outperform Humans In Predicting Correlations Between Personality ItemsSchoenegger, Greenberg, Grishin, Lewis & Caviola*, Communications Psychology, 2025.Moral PsychologyMoral Psychology and UtilitarianismCaviola* & Greene, An Introduction to Utilitarianism, 2024.Signaling (In)Tolerance: Social Evaluation and Metaethical Relativism and ObjectivismMoss, Montealegre, Bush, Caviola* & Pizarro, Cognition, 2025.Children Value Animals More Than Adults Do: A Conceptual Replication And ExtensionParuzel-Czachura, Maier, Warmuz, Wilks & Caviola*, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 2024.ResourcesIf you would like to receive an email update about any future research endeavours that continue the mission of the Global Priorities Institute, please sign up here. GPI's YouTube channel includes videos from many of our public events, including the Parfit Memorial Lectures and the Atkinson Memorial Lectures. Teaching MaterialsTopics in Global Priorities ResearchFoundational Issues in Effective AltruismTopics in Economic Theory & Global PrioritizationYou may also be interested in the work of these other organisations:AI Governance Initiative at the University of OxfordAnimal Welfare Economics Working GroupCentre for the Governance of AIEleos AI ResearchForethought Centre for AI Strategy  Institute for Law and AIInstitute for Futures Studies and Mimir Center for Long-Term Futures ResearchLondon AI and Humanity Project at the University of LondonCenter for Mind Ethics and Policy at NYUPopulation Wellbeing Initiative at UT AustinThe Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI at Stanford University                1784816402https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org

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